Climate Risk and Solvency Capital: Capability Gaps vs Regime Gaps
The Bank of England's distinction between capability gaps and regime gaps — and what it implies for SAM, Solvency II, and climate capital add-ons in South Africa.
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155 curated regulatory documents, standards, and research papers across banking, insurance solvency, IFRS 17, AI governance, and climate risk.
Gazetted draft national AI policy (Notice 3880 of 2026). Six strategic pillars, EU AI Act-inspired risk classification, AI Ethics Board, AI Safety Institute, AI insurance superfund. Public comment to 10 June 2026.
Practical toolkit for South African actuaries and insurers on integrating climate risk into valuations, risk management and reporting. Published by ASSA's Climate Change Committee.
Practical handbook covering traditional AI, generative AI, and agentic AI risk management for banking, insurance, and capital markets.
Comprehensive open-access book covering ML and AI tools for actuarial practice. Authors include Mario Wüthrich (ETH Zurich) and Ronald Richman.
NAICOM's 2026 finalised guidelines setting licensing, fit-and-proper and renewal requirements for Nigerian insurers, reinsurers and intermediaries.
Practitioner guidance on testing AI/ML models used in insurance — data bias, performance validation, fairness, robustness and monitoring. Essential when deploying AI in pricing, underwriting or claims.
End-to-end governance framework for AI in insurance — accountability, ethics, documentation, regulatory alignment (EU AI Act, NAIC Model Bulletin). Baseline for any AI policy or model risk extension covering AI.
Standards for documenting AI models — model cards, data lineage, assumptions, limitations, retraining triggers. Practical template source for insurer AI model inventories.
ASSA 2025 Convention paper examining comparability challenges in the first years of IFRS 17 reporting across South African insurers.
ASSA 2025 Convention paper on integrating MLOps practices into actuarial model governance and production control frameworks.
ASSA 2025 Convention paper quantifying the morbidity impact of extreme climate events on a sample of South African medical scheme lives.
ASSA 2025 Convention paper applying transformer architectures to constrained portfolio and capital allocation problems.
ASSA 2025 Convention paper proposing an arbitrage-free method to estimate domestic credit spreads for South African government bonds — relevant for SAM risk-free curve construction.
ASSA 2025 Convention paper on actuarial approaches for South African medical schemes to respond to rapid shifts in clinical evidence and cost drivers.
Updated treatment of natural and man-made catastrophe modelling, accumulation control and reinsurance interaction, with an explicit climate change overlay. Anchor reference for non-life cat capital and climate-aware pricing.
Retirement Plans Experience Committee's 2025 update to mortality improvement analysis, refreshing data underpinning the MIM-2021 framework used for reserving and valuation of retirement liabilities.
CAS working paper introducing a scalable, data-driven toolbox to detect indirect discrimination in GLM and ML-based insurance pricing models.
NAICOM industry insurance report covering market structure, premium, claims and solvency position of Nigeria's insurance sector.
ASSA's foundation professional standard for general actuarial practice, covering data, methodology, documentation and communication of results across all actuarial work.
ASSA 2025 Africa Seminar paper surveying the structure, challenges and actuarial issues in Nigeria's pension and retirement industry.
ASSA 2025 Africa Seminar paper examining ALM constraints facing African insurers — shallow bond markets, FX risk and regulatory asset eligibility.
Final IAIS guidance for supervisors on overseeing AI systems in insurance — governance, accountability, consumer protection, prudential soundness.
Refreshed ALM chapter covering duration/convexity matching, liquidity risk, IFRS 17 vs economic capital mismatch and practical hedging strategies. Relevant for both SAM market risk capital and IFRS 17 OCI option decisions.
ASSA's joint APN 112/405 providing advisory guidance to South African actuaries on application of IFRS 17 including discounting, risk adjustment and transition considerations.
ASSA practice note defining the role, responsibilities and reporting of the Head of Actuarial Function under the Insurance Act and SAM Prudential Standards.
ASSA practice note setting out principles for projecting expense cash flows used in technical provisions and Solvency Capital Requirement calculations under SAM.
ASSA practice note on embedded value reporting for South African life insurers, commonly used alongside IFRS 17 disclosures.
Survey of LLM adoption by 21 Chinese insurers and 18 academic institutions — production deployments, use cases, actuarial curriculum integration.
Surveys predictive analytics and machine learning applications across life and annuity reinsurance workflows including underwriting, claims, fraud detection, and data management.
Expert panel discussion on NIST AI RMF and Generative AI Profile applications for actuarial practice — insurance, healthcare, financial modelling.
Quantifies the gap between physical climate risk exposure and adaptation investment, with actuarial framing of protection gap, insurability and public-private mechanisms. Useful context for climate scenario work and sustainability disclosures.
Examines how physical and transition climate risks feed through to social security system solvency, mortality, migration and labour market assumptions. Broader framing for long-tail climate-linked liabilities.
Introduces water-related physical risks (flood, drought, water stress) as a distinct climate-risk domain for actuaries. Covers exposure metrics, modelling approaches and portfolio implications for P&C and life insurers.
Latest English-language BCB FSR including climate stress testing of the credit portfolio for physical risks (drought exposure sensitivity for 2020/2030/2050).
SA directive specifying Pillar 3 public disclosure requirements for banks, aligned to the BCBS consolidated Pillar 3 framework.
SA directive implementing Basel large exposures framework — limits and measurement for single-counterparty concentrations.
Five-year strategic plan for the Prudential Authority — supervisory priorities, risk-based approach and regulatory reform agenda.
SA Reserve Bank Prudential Authority guidance specifying climate-related disclosure expectations for SA banks, aligned with TCFD recommendations.
Examines how physical and transition climate risks affect long-horizon pension and retirement portfolios, including asset allocation and scenario analysis implications for actuaries advising retirement plans.
FSCA's three-year regulatory strategy setting supervisory priorities across insurance, retirement funds, banks and capital markets under South Africa's Twin Peaks model.
Finalised MAS consultation setting supervisory expectations for AI risk management across FIs — governance, data, model lifecycle and third-party AI. Directly relevant to insurer AI pilots.
Latest NGFS scenario set (v5.0) for climate risk assessment. Updated physical damage functions yield 2–4x higher physical losses by 2050 vs Phase IV.
Findings from APRA's 2024 survey of 64 medium/large regulated institutions against CPG 229. Useful benchmark for insurer climate maturity.
Annual report covering PA's supervisory activities, regulatory developments and banking sector statistics for 2023/24.
South Africa's foundational principle- and risk-based national AI policy framework published August 2024. Benchmarks EU AI Act, OECD approaches.
Comprehensive horizontal regulation establishing risk-based rules for AI systems across all sectors in the EU. Entered into force 1 August 2024.
Companion practice guide to CPS 230 covering operational risk profiles, controls, tolerance-setting and critical operations mapping.
First intergovernmental AI standard. Values-based principles for trustworthy AI and policy recommendations adopted 2019, revised May 2024.
BCB semiannual FSR covering banking system resilience, capital stress tests and climate risk surveillance in the Brazilian financial system.
Philippines Insurance Commission circular setting out PFRS 17 application, effective 1 January 2025, with specific AFS and reportorial requirements for non-life insurers.
Technical introduction to generative AI mechanics for actuaries, with worked examples. By Stephen Carlin (FIA) and Stephan Mathys (FSA).
SAMA's official index of all insurance rules and regulations, including implementing regulations for the Cooperative Insurance Companies Control Law.
Distils the ISSB IFRS S1/S2 sustainability and climate disclosure standards into actuarial implications, covering scenario analysis, materiality, and integration with financial reporting.
Reviews how rising physical climate risks are affecting insurance availability, pricing affordability, and coverage adequacy across geographies, with implications for ratemaking and public policy.
Introduces federated learning as a privacy-preserving, distributed ML framework enabling insurers to collaborate on model training without pooling sensitive policyholder data.
Applies interpretable ML (SHAP, surrogate models) to health insurance fraud detection, balancing explainability and performance for regulated actuarial use.
Explores the intersection of LTC insurance, informal caregiving, and housing arrangements, with actuarial implications for product design, utilization, and reserving.
ASSA 2024 Climate Change Seminar paper assessing South Africa's physical climate exposure and institutional preparedness from an actuarial perspective.
ASSA 2024 Climate Change Seminar session on physical climate risk modelling techniques for insurers and banks, including flood, wildfire and drought hazard layers.
Primary HKIA guideline giving interpretation of the Valuation and Capital Rules under the new three-pillar Risk-Based Capital regime that commenced 1 July 2024.
US state insurance regulators' expectations for insurer AI governance programs — unfair trade practices, adverse consumer outcomes, third-party AI use.
The sixth and final TCFD status report covering FY2022 disclosures. Marks TCFD's disbandment; IFRS Foundation assumes monitoring role.
MAS climate transition planning expectations for insurers — underwriting, investment, scenario analysis and engagement with clients on net-zero pathways.
NGFS framework establishing shared science-based concepts for nature-related financial risk assessment. Includes illustrative forest and freshwater ecosystem cases.
Cross-industry prudential standard on operational risk, business continuity and service provider management. Effective 1 July 2025; applies to banks, insurers and super funds.
First ISSB sustainability disclosure standard. Sets general requirements for material sustainability-related financial risks and opportunities. Effective 1 Jan 2024.
Second ISSB standard integrating and superseding TCFD recommendations with legally binding disclosure requirements on climate risks and opportunities.
Practitioner guide to ORSA design, forward-looking capital assessment, stress and scenario testing, and board reporting. Directly maps to SAM Pillar 2 ORSA requirements.
Covers reinsurance structures, credit risk, counterparty default capital and IFRS 17 reinsurance contracts held accounting. Bridges SAM counterparty risk capital with IFRS 17 reinsurance measurement.
Model risk management framework for actuarial and capital models — roles, independent validation, model inventory, change control. Core reference for SAM internal model approval and IFRS 17 model governance.
Reserving and liability measurement for general insurance — best-estimate, risk adjustment, uncertainty quantification — directly applicable to IFRS 17 LRC and LIC work under PAA and GMM.
Synthesises enterprise risk management practice for insurers including governance, risk appetite, economic capital and ORSA linkage. Strong companion to ISAP 5 and SAM Pillar 2 thinking.
Role, responsibilities and reporting lines of the insurer actuarial function under Solvency II / SAM / ICS regimes. Useful scoping reference when defining actuarial function deliverables.
SA directive on how accounting provisions (including IFRS 9 ECL) are treated in regulatory capital calculations for banks.
SA directive requiring banks to develop operational resilience policies including business continuity and ICT risk management.
The complete IFRS 9 standard — classification and measurement, impairment (ECL model) and hedge accounting. Effective 1 January 2018.
The 2023 annotated edition of the full IFRS 17 standard with cross-references to Basis for Conclusions.
Voluntary framework to govern, map, measure, and manage risks across the AI system lifecycle. Widely referenced baseline for enterprise AI governance programmes.
The globally-recognised model standard of actuarial practice for work supporting IFRS 17 financial statements — CSM, risk adjustment, discounting, transition. Canonical reference when defining actuarial scope on any IFRS 17 engagement.
Policy briefing on integrating biodiversity and nature-related risk into actuarial practice, including gaps in metrics and regulatory direction.
Technical documentation for v4 of SOA's Mortality Improvement Model used in pension and life reserving, with refreshed experience data and refined smoothing/calibration methodology.
Assesses LTC product readiness across APAC markets, covering demographic pressures, regulatory environments, and pricing/reserving challenges for new entrants.
HKIA ERM guideline setting out ORSA and Pillar 2 expectations for authorized insurers under the HKRBC framework.
Community-maintained list of the top security risks specific to ML systems — input manipulation, data poisoning, model inversion, supply chain attacks.
Research paper on spatial dependence modelling for flood risk under climate change, relevant to catastrophe pricing and reinsurance portfolio accumulation analysis.
Aggregated results of APRA's first CVA across Australia's five largest banks using NGFS scenarios. Template for regulator-led climate stress tests in APAC.
Joint Milliman/CoreLogic paper on using catastrophe models to quantify wildfire mitigation credits, with a Northern California case study for ratemaking and community risk management.
JFSA advisory council's tentative decisions on Japan's Economic Solvency Ratio (ESR), internal model regime and transition to economic value-based regulation (effective March 2026).
Part of CAS Race & Insurance Pricing series: surveys fairness metrics and statistical methods for detecting and quantifying discriminatory effects in predictive rating models.
Foundational CAS paper defining protected class, unfair discrimination, proxy discrimination, disparate impact/treatment and disproportionate impact in the P&C pricing context.
Examines credit-based insurance score, geographic location, home ownership, and motor vehicle records as rating factors through the lens of potential racial bias and disparate impact.
Conceptual approaches for assessing insurer vulnerability to physical and transition climate risks under adverse scenarios.
The full IFRS 17 standard as issued in 2022, including Basis for Conclusions and illustrative examples (Part A).
SAMA circular approving IFRS 17 amendments for application by Saudi insurers — primary IFRS 17 regulatory mandate document.
APRA cross-industry climate risk PPG — governance, risk management, scenario analysis and disclosure expectations for banks, insurers and super funds.
First global standard-setting instrument on AI ethics, adopted by 193 member states. Sets out ten core human-rights-centred principles for AI development and use.
Six guidance measures for market intermediaries and asset managers on governing, testing, and disclosing AI/ML use in financial markets.
2021 law requiring Colorado insurers to test external data, algorithms, and predictive models for unfair discrimination. First US state-level AI insurance statute.
EY's comprehensive implementation guide covering all measurement models, transition options, and disclosure requirements (June 2021).
EFRAG's technical quality assessment of IFRS 17 — relevance, reliability, comparability, understandability — part of the 2021 final endorsement package.
South Africa's primary capital adequacy directive implementing Basel III for banks, covering Pillar 1 (minimum capital), Pillar 2 (ICAAP/SREP) and Pillar 3 (disclosure).
MAS-led Veritas consortium methodology to quantitatively test AIDA systems for fairness against the FEAT principles. Practitioner-grade assessment template.
IRDAI implementation group report translating IFRS 17 principles into Ind AS 117 and mapping application issues specific to Indian life and non-life insurers.
Sessional paper from the IFoA IFRS 17 CSM Working Party covering CSM mechanics, coverage units, with-profits, reinsurance, and transition approaches for life insurers. Core practitioner reference for CSM methodology.
Joint practical guide to preparing TCFD-aligned climate disclosures covering governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics and targets.
Consolidated version of IFRS 17 with all June 2020 amendments (deferral, transition, PAA, reinsurance fixes).
Summary of the June 2020 amendments process and how the Board responded to consultation feedback.
KPMG's detailed clause-by-clause guide incorporating the June 2020 amendments — the industry-standard reference for initial implementation.
MAS proposed ENRM guidelines for insurers covering governance, risk management and disclosure. Companion to the later-issued finalised guidelines.
Five-recommendation roadmap for financial supervisors to embed climate and environmental risks into supervisory frameworks and governance.
Covers design principles and pitfalls of stress/scenario testing across market, credit, insurance and operational risks. Useful for SAM capital work, reverse stress tests and climate scenario exercises.
Covers lapse, surrender and option-exercise modelling for life and long-term products. Directly relevant to IFRS 17 best-estimate cash flows, CSM unlocking and SAM lapse risk SCR.
Technical note covering the treatment of experience variances in the CSM roll-forward, including which variances adjust the CSM versus flowing through P&L.
SAMA's current actuarial work rules — who may perform actuarial services, scope of actuarial opinions, and SAMA pre-approval requirements.
Investigates simplified methods and approximations for determining reserves under VM-20 principle-based reserving, addressing modelling efficiency for life insurers.
The consolidated and integrated version of all Basel Committee standards — Basel II, 2.5 and III combined.
Practitioner guide on how IFRS 17 reshapes insurer KPIs including new business value, profit emergence patterns, and investor disclosure expectations.
Full set of Insurance Core Principles and Common Framework adopted by IAIS in November 2019 — the global supervisory standard for insurance.
EIOPA's opinion on integrating climate-related risks into Solvency II Pillar I — asset valuation, liability reserving, underwriting, investment risk.
Working party article exploring unit-of-account decisions for reinsurance contracts held under IFRS 17, including practical groupings and portfolio treatment.
Research paper critiquing the Solvency II cost-of-capital risk margin methodology and exploring alternatives — foundational reading for SAM risk margin discussions.
Basis for Conclusions on the 2019 Exposure Draft proposing amendments to IFRS 17 — the Board's reasoning for each change.
Working party primer on AI, ML, IoT and automation use cases in general insurance — pricing, claims, fraud, underwriting — with actuarial implications.
Revised and consolidated Pillar 3 framework — credit risk, CCR, securitisation, market risk, IRRBB and remuneration disclosures.
Foundational principles establishing Fairness, Ethics, Accountability, Transparency expectations for financial institutions using AI and data analytics.
Top-level framework setting out the SAM solvency architecture, MCR/SCR structure, and Eligible Own Funds principles for solo insurers.
Market-consistent valuation requirements for assets and non-technical-provision liabilities under SAM.
Requirements for the valuation of insurance technical provisions (best estimate + risk margin) under the SAM framework.
How the Minimum Capital Requirement (absolute solvency floor) is calculated for solo insurers under SAM.
Standardised formula for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement — module structure and aggregation approach.
Requirements for insurers seeking to use an approved internal model to calculate the SCR under SAM.
Top-level governance standard for South African insurers — the GOI equivalent of FSI 1 for operational and governance requirements.
Joint IAIS-SIF issues paper analysing physical, transition, and liability climate risks for insurance. Foundational document for subsequent IAIS climate work.
Global Public Policy Committee guide to implementing IFRS 17 — governance, systems, data, and actuarial requirements.
Primary legislation establishing the SAM framework for South African insurers — replaces the Long-term and Short-term Insurance Acts.
Foundation model standard governing all actuarial work — assumptions, data quality, documentation, peer review. Underpins every other ISAP and is frequently referenced in IFRS 17 and SAM deliverables.
Technical note on the recalculation of TMTP (transitional measures on technical provisions) under Solvency II, relevant for SAM transition methodology comparison.
The December 2017 Basel III finalisation document — revised standardised and IRB approaches, CVA, operational risk, leverage ratio and output floor.
Foundational chapter on economic capital frameworks, risk-based capital calibration and capital's role as a management lever. Useful background when explaining SCR vs economic capital to boards.
One-page executive summary of IFRS 9's expected credit loss model, its interaction with regulatory capital, and key supervisory considerations.
The landmark 2017 TCFD framework — four pillars: Governance, Strategy, Risk Management, Metrics & Targets. Foundation for IFRS S2 and global disclosure regimes.
Companion technical supplement to the 2017 TCFD Recommendations — detailed guidance on climate scenario analysis including 2°C and physical risk scenarios.
Foundational HKIA consultation setting out the design of the three-pillar RBC framework. Still a useful explainer of the intended calibration and scope.
2016 BCBS standard for measuring, managing and supervising IRRBB — covering EVE and NII perspectives.
Fundamental Review of the Trading Book — revised market risk capital framework with sensitivities-based method, IMA, and banking/trading book boundary.
Model standard for actuaries building or reviewing insurer ERM/economic capital models used for solvency and ORSA. Directly relevant to SAM first-line model build and internal model validation.
Governance standards for Saudi insurance and reinsurance companies — board composition, audit, and internal controls.
Research paper exploring complex-systems thinking applied to risk appetite frameworks and emerging risk identification in ERM, applicable across insurance and banking.
The 2014 final leverage ratio standard — Tier 1 capital / total exposure at a minimum 3% ratio, with public disclosure.
The LCR standard requiring banks to hold sufficient high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day stress scenario.
Working party paper on calculating technical provisions under Solvency II for non-life insurers — best estimate methodology, risk margin, and practical implementation challenges. Directly relevant framework for SAM technical provisions.
Sessional paper covering governance, risk culture, risk controls, emerging risk, and capital modelling in UK insurers — broadly applicable ERM reference.
Sessional paper on internal model construction under Solvency II — scope, validation, calibration and governance — directly analogous to SAM internal model approval.
Royal Decree M/32 (2003) — foundational insurance legislation governing licensing, solvency, and supervision of Saudi insurers.
Detailed implementing regulations (2004) — operational requirements for licensed Saudi insurers.
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The Bank of England's distinction between capability gaps and regime gaps — and what it implies for SAM, Solvency II, and climate capital add-ons in South Africa.
Read →Scenario analysis and stress testing get used interchangeably in climate-risk reporting. They are not the same tool. The difference matters for ORSA, IFRS S2, and any serious view of climate resilience.
Read →The PA's two climate guidance notes, their relationship to GOI 3, TCFD and IFRS S2 — and a 90-day getting-started plan for a South African insurer.
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